Election watch: DA leads polls in three key cities - TechCentral

Election watch: DA leads polls in three key cities

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The ANC has failed to erode the lead of the main opposition party in Pretoria, the capital, and Johannesburg, three weeks before the nation holds local government elections, the latest eNCA public opinion survey shows.

The ANC dropped a point to 25% in the Tshwane municipality, which includes Pretoria, while the Democratic Alliance remained steady at 39%, according to the poll, which was compiled for the broadcaster by research company Ipsos. The Economic Freedom Fighters gained a point to 13%.

In Johannesburg, the commercial hub, the ANC had 31% backing, while the DA dropped one point to 35%, and the EFF rose by an equal margin to 13%.

The ANC did lift its support in a third key municipality that it controls, Nelson Mandela Bay, which incorporates the city of Port Elizabeth, where it gained six percentage points in the past week to 27%, according to the poll, compared to 42% for the DA and 8% for the EFF.

The poll is the sixth commissioned by eNCA that shows the ANC is facing a serious challenge to maintain control of the three municipalities, as a 27% unemployment rate, a lack of basic services and a succession of scandals embroiling party leader President Jacob Zuma takes its toll. The ANC has won more than 60% of the vote in every election since white minority rule ended in 1994.

“What Ipsos is basically saying is we have lost the election,” Paul Mashatile, the 54-year-old chairman of the ANC in the central Gauteng province, said in a July 7 interview. “I’m not sure how they are doing their research. We are quite confident that in many of our municipalities” the ANC has 50% support or more.

The percentage of respondents who said they were undecided about how they would vote was 16% in Johannesburg, 13% in Tshwane and 15% in Mandela Bay.

The August vote is being contested by 200 parties and 61 014 candidates. The ANC won control of 198 of the 278 municipalities, including seven of the country’s eight biggest metropolitan areas, in the last municipal elections in 2011. The DA secured an outright majority in 18 councils, including Cape Town, the second-biggest city, which wasn’t covered by the eNCA poll.

The poll had a margin of error of between 1,2% and 2,8% in Johannesburg, from 1,6% to 3,7% in Pretoria and between 2,5% and 5,7% in Nelson Mandela Bay, according to eNCA.  — (c) 2016 Bloomberg LP

  • Written with assistance from Sam Mkokeli

5 Comments

  1. Vusumuzi Sibiya on

    >>“What Ipsos is basically saying is we have lost the election,” Paul Mashatile, the 54-year-old chairman of the ANC in the central Gauteng province, said in a July 7 interview. “I’m not sure how they are doing their research. We are quite confident that in many of our municipalities” the ANC has 50% support or more.

    What I love most about these polls; oh, and especially those commissioned by eNCA, is how when the actual results after people have cast their votes begin to trickle in –

    …it amazingly seems from all the their news reports and headlines; that the same eNCA had it right all along and that an overwhelming ANC victory had always been inevitable and to be expected –

    No apologies, whatsoever to the public that they had deliberately mislead with commissioned polls, prior to the actual election but just another normal headline eNCA news reporting day at the office – …after any of the said such elections that had such polls being so accurately researched by unbiased credible organizations that have been commissioned at a healthy sum no doubt.

    After decades in this industry having even producing such SAFTA nominated reality contest that should make the next music sensation;

    I can attest to this fact: that media has absolutely no power to make or break anyone with the strongest determination and will to succeed… Zuma is one perfect example.

    Keep on spending the cash commissioning polls, at least there is some “comical news value” especially for those that work the ground and always have the last laugh with the biggest celebrations after the actual results that count.

  2. We don’t have great polls here, and there is a real art to polling and selecting the sample methodology to ensure accurate results. Even election forecasting as results are being announced is not great compared to some other countries (look at US elections which get read accurately by pollsters with only a few percent of ballots counted). That said, your defensiveness alone says that there really is a problem with falling ANC support – interesting to see you acknowledge it.

  3. Vusumuzi Sibiya on

    And because all ANC cadres have acknowledged that; and have worked the ground harder than in any other previous elections through our massive network of volunteers… and not taking our victory for granted –

    …we are certain of such a decisive victory that is sure to once and for all break this continued speculation or rather dream that the opposition parties have, in which they delusionally believe that they’ve won over ANC loyalists who will be voting in their numbers.

  4. Bring on the change people, there can be absolutely no dispute the DA runs a far better municipality – ‘the proof is in the pudding’. They listen, they engage, they continually try to improve. What could be worse other than the ANC, who steal, lie, squander, mismanage, don’t care, don’t respect the constitution etc. etc. etc.

  5. If it were just about parties, that seems plausible, but JZ seems to have hijacked the ANC in the same way as Trump has hijacked the Republican Party in the US election. Just like many Republicans cannot support a person who would destroy what’s good about their country, I suspect that many ANC supporters will sit this one out, or vote tactically to send a message to the party to remove the corrupt hijacker. And, just like the Republicans and the Democrats, the largest parties in South Africa are basically variations of the same social democratic centre, so it’s not as if those supporters would be betraying their liberty and their country, any more than a Republican voting for Clinton would be. If anything, any vote against corrupt leadership is a good thing for South Africa (and likely also the ANC in the long run), even though most people seem to vote on identity rather than on what the people they vote for would actually deliver.
    I guess we will have to see what the numbers say, but predicting a massive swing back to the ANC in the current environment, where support has been dropping measurably for years, is reaching a bit. What is more interesting is how the sensible people in the ANC act after the election, and use the reduced support to drive out the rot in the party before it’s too late.