With a 94% year-to-date gain, and a single “coin” now worth US$1 843 (R24 639), bitcoin has been on a helluva run lately.
The increase in the cost of the massively volatile electronic tokens has led to many comparisons with that other favourite outsider “currency” — gold — recently.
True, a unit of bitcoin passed the dollar value of one troy ounce of gold this year, and is now more than $600 higher.
But the daily swings in the digitally created asset have been vast. Even during the huge run-up this year, it has moved more than 5% on 21 different days, with nine of those being moves lower. Gold on the other hand, has been much more stable.
Volatility aside, there is a major problem with gold as a comparison for the software-based unit.
Nobody thinks comparing one share of Apple (current price around $155) — with one share of, for example, outdoor lighting company Acuity Brands (current price around $178) — is valid. It certainly does not show that Acuity (market cap $7,9bn) is worth more than Apple (market cap $814bn).
By the time the supply of new bitcoins ends, sometime after the year 2110, there will be 21m bitcoins in (digital) existence, meaning the total value of all of the electronic tokens that will ever exist, at today’s market price, is just under $39bn. According to the World Gold Council, total gold stocks amount to approximately six billion troy ounces, or $7,3 trillion at today’s price.
To put it another way, in order for bitcoin to be worth more than gold, a one “coin” would have to trade at $347 000 in order for “bitcoin worth more than gold” to be a defensible statement.
Must dash now, one bitcoin is about be worth more than one aluminium future… — (c) Bloomberg LP
