By its own admission, in the last year Eskom has failed more than ever before to carry out its basic contract: supplying a stable power supply to customers.

It records “energy not supplied” due to emergency load reduction as 14.6TWh for the current year; and admitted that significant increases in load shedding from 2022 to date “indicated an inadequate system”.

Eskom’s medium-term system adequacy outlook 2024-2028 is a review of the adequacy of available electricity generation to meet South Africa’s demand in the coming five years – and it makes for depressing reading.

The company’s immediate focus is to reduce load shedding with an energy availability factor (EAF) recovery programme, aiming to achieve a 65% EAF by the end of March 2024 and a 70% EAF by March 2025.

South Africa has been faced with power-supply constraints for more than 15 years, with 2023 being the worst year yet if load shedding. The loss of 14.6TWh by the end of September was exacerbated by the loss of three units at Kusile power station – due to a flue duct collapse – and the delayed return of Koeberg unit 1 from the steam generator replacement outage.

Eskom is hoping that with the Kusile units and Koeberg units hopefully returning to service by the end of the year, the system will be less constrained.

Rooftop solar installed by residential and commercial customers has also helped to ease the power generation constraints.

Eskom EAF

The study indicates that, if the plant performance decline is not arrested and new generation capacity is not rolled out on time, the situation will only get worse. The results of this medium-term system adequacy outlook (MTSAO) have shown:

The low EAF scenario is severely inadequate, regardless of the new generation initiatives;
The high EAF scenario, if achieved, will support economic growth; and
The performance of the existing generation fleet needs to be improved.

To restore power system adequacy in the medium term, the MTSAO 2023 recommends:

A combination of improved plant performance and the addition of new capacity;
The maintenance regime must be reviewed to improve efficacy;
“Substantial upstream network strengthening to facilitate new generation capacity” to be built in places such as the Western, Eastern and Northern Cape. The latest report notes that the areas with the best solar or wind resources lack connection infrastructure; and
More emphasis should be placed on extending the life of Koeberg, as the loss of units at the nuclear power station will have a significant impact on supply in the short term.

Read: Eskom full-year net loss doubles to R24-billion

Eskom’s already extensive use of diesel-burning open-cycle gas turbines has increased significantly from 2019, and 2023 year-to-date usage of the turbines is already higher than the full year 2022 – and likely to increase further into the summer months. — (c) 2023 NewsCentral Media