For years, investors have talked of Apple as a potential port of safety in times of market turmoil. That hasn’t been borne out this time around.
The iPhone maker has tumbled in recent sessions, extending its year-to-date underperformance amid a growing number of risks that are overshadowing its traditional high-quality characteristics.
While Apple offers steady earnings growth and sits on a mountain of cash, headwinds form a daunting list for would-be bulls: it is heavily exposed to tariff uncertainty and China, its artificial intelligence offerings have repeatedly fizzled and its lucrative partnership with Google is potentially at risk. It trades at a premium to megacap tech peers despite slower revenue growth, suggesting that the haven case is harder to make for Apple.
“People like to park in Apple, but right now the stock is expensive, and not only is growth slow, but the catalysts for growth are absent,” said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder. “It doesn’t seem like AI is doing much for it, the environment is very uncertain, and it is very at risk with tariffs and China. While it isn’t as controversial as Tesla, it seems like it is just treading water and it has been a while since we’ve seen anything truly innovative from it.”
Shares have dropped 13% this year, and are coming off their biggest three-day decline since November 2022, a selloff that took the stock to its lowest close since September. The Nasdaq 100 Index is down 6.7% in 2025, and Apple is responsible for nearly a fifth of that decline. The CBOE Apple VIX, which tracks a market estimate of future volatility for the stock, has risen 56% off a February low.
Trump tariffs
Recent volatility reflects rising geopolitical risk, especially with respect to tariffs. US President Donald Trump recently doubled levies against China to 20%, a potentially significant development for Apple, which counts the country as both as a key manufacturing hub and a major market; it got about 17% of its fiscal 2024 revenue from the greater China region.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Anurag Rana calculates that Apple faces a 100-150 basis point dent on operating margin and a 1-2% hit on sales growth if the surcharge carries on the full fiscal year.
Read: Apple prioritised revenue for app fee change despite legal risk
Investors are hoping Apple will get an exemption, as it did during Trump’s first term, and it recently announced domestic spending plans that were seen as a way to curry favour. Avoiding tariffs might remove an overhang on the stock, but wouldn’t represent much of a catalyst otherwise at a time when investors are anxious to see more robust growth.
Revenue has fallen in five of the past nine quarters, and while analysts expect 4.7% growth in fiscal 2025, this is less than half the 11.8% pace expected for the overall tech sector. This is despite Apple trading at 28x estimated earnings, well above its 10-year average, and a premium to every other Magnificent Seven stock except Tesla.
“There’s so much uncertainty from tariffs, and doubts that it can grow enough to overcome both risks like that and the valuation hurdle,” said Scott Yuschak, MD of equity strategy at Truist Advisory Services. “It isn’t the stock I’ll worry about first, since its balance sheet is stable and there are other pricey stocks where the businesses aren’t as durable, but I do wrestle with it.”
Yuschak is not alone. Fewer than two-thirds of the analysts tracked by Bloomberg recommend buying the stock, making Apple the least-loved Magnificent 7 stock outside Tesla.
Investors had been optimistic that the iPhone 16, the first to be compatible with AI features, would entice consumers to trade up for the latest model. However, demand has underwhelmed so far, and in the latest example of its struggles with the cutting-edge technology, it is indefinitely delaying the release of its AI-infused Siri digital assistant.
In a potential positive, however, Apple will use Alibaba’s technology to bring AI features to Apple products in China. Last week, Alibaba said its latest AI model had performance that is comparable to DeepSeek’s despite requiring a fraction of the data.
Ed Cofrancesco, CEO of International Assets Advisory, noted that Apple had avoided the kind of heavy AI spending of other Big Tech companies that is coming under increased scrutiny.
“This isn’t your play if you’re looking for a stock that will triple, but if the economy cools, it’s likely to be a safe haven given the quality and stability of its earnings and balance sheet, and its decades of showing it can pivot in the face of changing conditions,” he said. “There are a lot of land mines in the road ahead, and Apple is better situated to navigate them than other names in tech.” — Reporting with Subrat Patnaik, (c) 2025 Bloomberg LP
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