As global organisations race to embed AI, redesign operating models and introduce new digital capabilities, South African enterprises are confronting a more complex reality. The technology exists, the ambition is high, but execution, and more specifically, human behaviour, remains the hardest and most underestimated part of transformation.

This is the view of Anton Hingeston and Bruce Turvey, executives at Change Logic, who share their predictions for 2026.

The insights that paint a picture of a market where leaders urgently need to shift focus from tools to fundamentals, from surface-level modernisation to embedded behavioural change and from reactive change management to proactive organisational leadership.

1. Leaders are overestimating AI and underestimating the work still required

While AI, robotics, quantum and automation dominate strategy conversations, Hingeston warns that leaders are misjudging where the real disruption lies.

“Leaders are overestimating how much these technologies will replace human work and underestimating how much normal work will still need to be done,” says Hingeston. “They assume AI is going to take over entire roles, but that isn’t happening the way people expect.”

Turvey agrees, adding that the biggest blind spot is not the technology itself, it’s organisational maturity.

“Most organisations are trying to put AI on top of wobbly foundations,” he says. “They don’t have the basics right, which is strategy alignment, structures that support that strategy, processes that make sense and systems that talk to each other. You can’t be crawling today and expect to run a 100-metre sprint tomorrow.”

This maturity gap, they caution, will slow meaningful AI adoption in 2026.

2. Technology ambition will continue to outpace organisational reality

South African enterprises are spending aggressively on modern tools, platforms and automation, yet many will still fail to unlock value in 2026. But it’s not the tools that are the problem, it is fragmented execution.

“There’s so much software out there that leaders don’t know where to start,” explains Turvey. “So they chase the shiny object, AI, while core systems like HR, finance and banking platforms are still outdated, inconsistent or poorly integrated.”

Hingeston adds that this creates unintentional internal disruption: “You see teams running off trying to ‘AI everything’ to show value. But it distracts from the core business. They’re too scared to fall behind, so they misapply technology instead of solving the real problem.”

3. Execution, not expertise, becomes the real consulting differentiator

As knowledge becomes increasingly commoditised, the team argues that consulting is reaching an inflection point.

“Consultants used to win by bringing knowledge,” Turvey explains. “But knowledge is now everywhere, AI can generate best-practice decks in seconds. The differentiator now is execution. It’s the ability to implement, embed and change behaviour inside the organisation.”

This shift will accelerate in 2026 as clients demand measurable outcomes, not presentations. The reality is that transformation only happens when behaviour changes. Without embedded behaviour, all you have is a new system sitting on top of old habits.

4. Customer experience will become the biggest pressure point

Asked which macro trend will create the most organisational friction in 2026, digitisation, cybersecurity, regulatory pressure or customer experience, both spokespeople respond immediately.

Both concur that it’s without a doubt customer experience. Why? Because competition is brutal, people are multi-banked and switch for value instantly, leaving experience as the only differentiator.

Turvey describes digitisation and regulation as “tickets to the game”, not points of differentiation. “If you’re not digitised, you’re dead. If you’re not compliant, you’re dead. CX is where organisations will win or lose,” he says.

5. South Africa’s talent will outperform global markets despite the noise

South Africa’s strengths, they argue, remain undervalued internationally. “Working with the UK and US, it’s clear they are not ahead of us,” Turvey says. “We’re as skilled, if not more so. Our work ethic and innovation stack up against anyone.”

What holds the country back? The team believes its perception. According to Hingeston we’re judged on political noise, not capability, and if people judged the US by its political noise, it would be unfair too. Meanwhile, sectors like banking prove South Africa is world-class.

The opportunity for 2026? Reframing South African capability, not as a compromise but as a competitive advantage.

6. Leadership must shift from reactive to proactive behaviour

One of the biggest shifts required in 2026 is leadership behaviour. Hingeston explains the gap plainly: “Most leaders pay lip service to change. They say, ‘If you have a problem, let me know.’ That’s reactive. Proactive leadership is being deeply involved in the change, shaping decisions, challenging assumptions, pulling insight proactively instead of waiting for a risk to surface.”

Ultimately, proactive change management is defined by clarity and foresight: people understand what is coming, the roles they need to play and the outcomes the organisation is driving toward. Reactive change, by contrast, is always playing catch-up, a cycle of responding to issues rather than shaping them. Proactive change shifts the centre of gravity, enabling leaders and teams to get ahead of disruption rather than clean up after it.

7. AI won’t trigger mass layoffs, but ‘agentic AI teammates’ will emerge

Both spokespeople believe the global layoff trend will reverse. According to Turvey: “Companies will realise AI can’t do what people do. Yes, AI will replace some tasks, but it will also create new roles. We’re going to see AI characters and agentic personas appearing within organisational structures. Think of a digital HR assistant with a name, a personality and defined responsibilities.”

The bottom line? The winners will be those who treat AI as a member of the team, not a replacement for the team.

8. Surface-level modernisation will fail without behavioural adoption

Perhaps one of the most thought-provoking predictions both share is based on behavioural change.

“New dashboards and new systems mean nothing if people don’t change their behaviour. Real transformation is about what people do with the information,” Hingeston says.

And according to Turvey: “Transformation must lead to performance. Organisations need to measure outcomes, not activity. Culture is just the aggregate of behaviours, and behaviours only shift through consistent reinforcement.”

9. CEOs must ask tougher, more fundamental questions before approving spend

Looking ahead to 2026, Hingeston says CEOs need to challenge themselves more rigorously and ask the hard questions before signing off on millions. What value will this create? Why are we doing it? How will we measure success? Is this a fad? And how will we maintain momentum when strategy shifts?

And throughout this, Turvey warns that change management can no longer be a tick-box line item. “It’s been dumbed down over the years. But without behavioural adoption, transformation fails. Micro-behavioural change, small, repeatable habits over time, is what creates lasting impact.

The tech we need already exists – the differentiator is behaviour

The most striking prediction is that organisations already have access to all the technology they need for meaningful progress. Success in 2026 will hinge less on acquiring new tools and far more on the ability to adopt, refine and fully leverage existing capabilities.

The real constraint is not technological but behavioural. Mastery will come from selecting the few technologies that genuinely move the needle, using them well and embedding them effectively into the way people work, rather than chasing the next shiny solution.