Ratings agency Fitch on Wednesday affirmed South Africa’s investment grade credit, and surprisingly kept its outlook stable, but it warned that political and growth concerns should be addressed.
This follows rating reviews by Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s, which both kept South Africa above non-investment grade — also known as junk status.
“The ‘BBB-‘ rating reflects low-trend gross domestic product growth, significant fiscal and external deficits, and high debt levels, which are balanced by strong policy institutions, deep local capital markets and a favourable government debt structure,” it said.
Statistics South Africa announced 20 minutes earlier that South Africa recorded a negative growth rate of -1,2% in the first quarter of 2016.
Fitch said political risk “increased since the previous rating review in December 2015, although it is not out of line with ‘BBB’ peers”.
“The dismissal of two finance ministers in a week in December, and subsequent tensions between the new finance minister Pravin Gordhan and other parts of the government have raised questions about the commitment of the government to sustained fiscal consolidation and prudent governance of state-owned enterprises,” Fitch warned.
“President Jacob Zuma has become increasingly embattled following the constitutional court ruling that he should repay some public funds used to refurbish his Nkandla residence and the Gauteng high court’s ruling that the previous suspension of a 2009 corruption case against Zuma was irrational.
“Nevertheless, institutions have proved robust. However, Fitch expects the governing ANC may lose some support in local elections on 3 August 2016. Tensions within the ANC are also increasing ahead of the conference in December 2017 to elect Zuma’s successor as ANC president.
“Fitch views political risks mainly in terms of the impact on the economy and public finances. Fitch’s base case is that the government remains committed to fiscal objectives set out in February’s budget, but political tensions increase risks to progress on fiscal consolidation and growth-enhancing measures, and raise the chances of policy missteps.”
