IBM’s one-quarter growth streak is already in doubt. Shares of the technology company fell in early trading after it reported narrower profit margins and no revenue growth, excluding help from a weak US dollar. That cast a shadow over an effort to sell more profitable cloud-based software to revive growth after five years of revenue declines.
Though heading in the right direction, the rebirth of IBM has yet to materialise, Daniel Ives, an analyst with GBH Insights, said in a note to clients. “Patience is wearing thin on the Street around the IBM turnaround story, which continues to be elusive.”
First-quarter revenue came in at US$19.1bn, beating the average analyst estimate of $18.8bn. That’s 5% higher than a year earlier, but flat without currency fluctuations. Margins slipped 0.6 percentage points to 43.2%. Earlier this year, chief financial officer James Kavanaugh said margins would stabilise “immediately” in the first quarter.
The stock dropped as much as 5.6% in early trading on Wednesday after closing at $160.91 in New York.
Growth in the cloud business was 14%, lower than the 2017 average of 24%, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Anurag Rana said. That “puts a question mark on IBM’s hybrid cloud strategy,” he added.
During a conference call, Kavanaugh pushed back on questions from analysts about margins and whether revenue can keep expanding. He pointed to growth across the company’s business lines, and said execution problems in IBM’s computer storage unit and consulting business were partly to blame for the quarter’s challenges.
Kavanaugh described the overall picture as positive and said CEO Ginni Rometty’s goal of getting about half of sales, or $40bn, from newer businesses was ahead of schedule.
“This is a good start to the year,” Kavanaugh said. “We’re well on pace to deliver that $40bn earlier than 2018.” Those new businesses represented 47% of revenue over the last 12 months, he noted.
Cyclical demand
Rometty reversed the trend of revenue declines late last year, though that boost wasn’t fuelled as much by new businesses as by cyclical demand for more traditional mainframe computers. Investors are watching closely for gains in newer software and services to support growth when the bump from hardware sales fades. In the meantime, Rometty has shifted thousands of jobs outside the US and reduced costs.
On average, analysts expected IBM to lift its full-year profit forecast, but the company kept it at $13.80/share.
Armonk, New York-based IBM said adjusted earnings per share were $2.45 in the quarter, up 4% from a year earlier. Analysts were expecting $2.42/share on average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Some investors aren’t waiting around to see if Rometty can return Big Blue to its glory days as one of the tech industry’s bellwethers. Warren Buffett, who plowed more than $10bn into the company in 2011, exited his position almost completely in recent months. — Reported by Gerrit De Vynck, (c) 2018 Bloomberg LP
