South African online retail is expected to reach R159-billion in 2026, up from R130-billion last year – but the rate of growth is expected to decline to 22.5%, from 35.4% in 2025 and 35.2% the year before.

The figures come from Online Retail in South Africa 2026, produced by World Wide Worx with Mastercard, Peach Payments and Ask Africa, and released on Wednesday. It would be the slowest growth in the six years World Wide Worx charts; the previous low was 29.1% in 2023.

The slowdown is less alarming than it looks.

The market is expected to add about R29-billion in turnover this year, which is almost the size of the entire South African online retail market in 2020, when it was worth R30.2-billion.

A smaller percentage off a base four times larger still produces more rand than a bigger percentage did five years ago. The report says growth has stabilised into the 20-35% band typical since 2006, excluding the 2020 pandemic spike.

What has changed is where the growth is coming from, with the market deepening rather than broadening.

The share of online shoppers spending more than R2 000 in a six-month period rose from 23.4% to 29%, according to Ask Africa’s Target Group Index, which conducted 23 910 interviews in 2025.

What happens at the checkout

World Wide Worx MD Arthur Goldstuck said the proportion of adults shopping online has fallen marginally, while the amount they spend has risen sharply.

The headline claim attached to the research is that 2026 is the first full year in which online retail averages 10% of national retail turnover. That depends on which measure you use, and the report is upfront about it.

On the constant 2019 price convention World Wide Worx has used for years, online retail crossed 10% in 2025 and will reach 12.8% this year. On a nominal like-for-like basis, comparing online turnover with Statistics South Africa retail sales at current prices, it was 8.5% in 2025 and will hit exactly 10% in 2026, crossing the line in the first half of the year.

Perhaps the more interesting findings in the study concern what happens at the checkout:

Card declines are now the single biggest cause of cart abandonment, cited by 61.2% of the 201 retailers surveyed, up from 27.9% a year earlier.
Shipping fees follow at 51.7%, a required account creation at 43.8% and a checkout that is too long or complicated at 40.3%.
Website and checkout errors, measured separately for the first time, came in at 31.3%.

Asked what drives unsuccessful payments, 60.7% of respondents named checkout or website errors, 50.7% insufficient funds and the same proportion abandonment during authentication. Suspected fraud accounted for 30.8% and issuer-side declines 25.9%. Goldstuck said the finding surprised the researchers, because payment fraud is the single largest concern retailers report.

On what merchants actually offer, debit and credit cards are near-universal at 99% and 98.5%, and EFT or bank transfer is at 89.1%. Buy now, pay later has arrived properly, offered by 54.7% of retailers. Digital wallets sit at 36.8% and QR payments at 27.9%. PayShap is offered by just 6.5%.

Couriers and cross-border

A new logistics module in this year’s study found The Courier Guy used by 64.7% of online retailers. RAM follows on 13.9% and Fastway on 13.4%, with Aramex, DPD Laser, Pargo and DSV all below 8%.

The report also carries third-party figures on cross-border trade, sourced to MustangPay and the SA International E-Commerce Association, showing growth stalling after the South African Revenue Service removed the de minimis duty concession in November 2024.

China-founded clothing retailer Shein’s annual growth in South Africa fell from a range of 30-50% down to 11%, and cross-border e-commerce growth overall fell from the same range to 7%. Even so, 18.6% of all South African e-commerce transactions were cross-border in 2025, or roughly 19 million orders.

Consumers are cooling – trust in international platforms fell from 10% to 4%, while trust in local platforms held steady at 46.6%.

Among individual operations, the study points to Takealot Group’s first full-year trading profit 15 years after launch, on adjusted earnings before interest and tax of R171-million, and to Checkers Sixty60 passing R25.5-billion in sales in the year to June. Takealot remains the most-used platform at 35.3% of online shoppers, followed by Shein at 21.5% and Sixty60 at 15%. Amazon was on 12.7% before Prime launched locally in June.

Goldstuck said Sixty60 is closing in on Takealot among households earning more than R100 000/month, at about 20% against 22.9%, and expects it to take the lead on that measure within a year. – © 2026 NewsCentral Media