The rally that made South Africa’s rand the world’s best performing currency this year might be nearing its end, according to Old Mutual Investment Group.
The currency gained 10% against the dollar in 2017, supported by higher prices for metals and expectations that GDP growth will rebound from the slowest expansion since the 2009 recession. Together with a 13% advance last year, the rand is close to almost wiping out its 2015 losses.
“While the fundamentals are improving, which would suggest rand strength, we’ve probably seen quite a lot of it already,” said Hywel George, director of investments at Cape Town-based Old Mutual Investment Group South Africa, which oversees about R600bn in assets. “I suspect a little more of the same, but I wouldn’t be in any way outlandishly bullish on the rand right now given how far it’s moved already.”
The rand may weaken to R14,13/US$ by the end of 2017, according to the median estimate of analyst data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency dropped less than 0,1% to R12,46 by 12.20pm in Johannesburg on Friday.
South Africa has also benefited from demand for emerging market assets as investors pare back expectations on the magnitude of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, and hopes that policies mooted by US President Donald Trump will spur growth.
All that risks being undone by uncertainty over the future of finance minister Pravin Gordhan, who has been under sustained attack by President Jacob Zuma’s allies after domestic banks dropped his friends, the Guptas, and for opposing spending plans on nuclear reactors.
“Barring any political upsets, we’re expecting a better year for the economy, so given our scale as a savings institution, better flows for us too,” George said, adding that South African investors might benefit from putting money into an emerging markets equity fund.
Old Mutual won’t change strategy because of R1,1bn in net outflows from the group’s funds over the past year, George said. “Our book was basically flat, which reflected we have a high market share, we’ve got a mature economy, which itself was flat. So we’re not reading, frankly, too much into that.”
The investor’s best performing funds include the Old Mutual Mining and Resources Fund and the Old Mutual Small Companies Fund, each up 17% over the past year and in the top 10 among South African funds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Old Mutual Global Equity Fund is the continent’s best performing mutual fund over five years with a 24% return after Coronation Asset Management’s Global Managed (ZAR) Feeder Fund, which has added 27%, the data show. — (c) 2017 Bloomberg LP
- Reported with assistance from Ryan Du Toit