Close Menu
TechCentralTechCentral

    Subscribe to the newsletter

    Get the best South African technology news and analysis delivered to your e-mail inbox every morning.

    Facebook X (Twitter) YouTube LinkedIn
    WhatsApp Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn YouTube
    TechCentralTechCentral
    • News
      State broadband merger limps into a second decade - Solly Malatsi

      State broadband merger limps into a second decade

      28 April 2026
      The AI policy that AI broke

      The AI policy that AI broke

      28 April 2026
      New DStv owner Canal+ confirms JSE listing date

      New DStv owner Canal+ confirms JSE listing date

      28 April 2026
      Pivotal week for US tech stocks

      Pivotal week for US tech stocks

      28 April 2026
      WhatsApp becomes the doctor's office in Turn.io's voice AI play

      WhatsApp becomes the doctor’s office in Turn.io’s voice AI play

      28 April 2026
    • World
      Taylor Swift trademarks her voice to fight AI fakes

      Taylor Swift trademarks her voice to fight AI fakes

      28 April 2026
      DeepSeek's long-awaited V4 model enters preview

      DeepSeek’s long-awaited V4 model enters preview

      24 April 2026
      More organic compounds detected on Mars - Nasa Curiosity rover

      More organic compounds detected on Mars

      21 April 2026
      Adobe bets on AI agents to fend off cheaper rivals

      Adobe bets on AI agents to fend off cheaper rivals

      16 April 2026
      Google poised to lose ad crown to Meta

      Google poised to lose ad crown to Meta

      14 April 2026
    • In-depth
      Africa switches on as Europe dims the lights

      Africa switches on as Europe dims the lights

      9 April 2026
      The biggest untapped EV market on Earth is hiding in plain sight

      The biggest untapped EV market on Earth is hiding in plain sight

      1 April 2026
      The R18-billion tech giant hiding in plain sight - Jens Montanana

      The R16-billion tech giant hiding in plain sight

      26 March 2026
      The last generation of coders

      The last generation of coders

      18 February 2026
      Sentech is in dire straits

      Sentech is in dire straits

      10 February 2026
    • TCS

      TCS+ | ‘The ISP for ISPs’: Vox’s shift to wholesale aggregator

      20 April 2026
      TCS | Werner Lindemann on how AI is rewriting the infosec rulebook

      TCS | Werner Lindemann on how AI is rewriting the infosec rulebook

      15 April 2026
      TCS | Donovan Marsh on AI and the future of filmmaking

      TCS | Donovan Marsh on AI and the future of filmmaking

      7 April 2026
      TCS+ | Vodacom Business moves to crack the SME tech gap - Andrew Fulton, Sannesh Beharie

      TCS+ | Vodacom Business moves to crack the SME tech gap

      7 April 2026
      TCS | MTN's Divysh Joshi on the strategy behind Pi - Divyesh Joshi

      TCS | MTN’s Divyesh Joshi on the strategy behind Pi

      1 April 2026
    • Opinion
      Free calls, dead voice and Shameel Joosub's Spanish ghost - Duncan McLeod

      Free calls, dead voice and Shameel Joosub’s Spanish ghost

      22 April 2026
      The conflict of interest at the heart of PayShap's slow adoption - Cheslyn Jacobs

      The conflict of interest at the heart of PayShap’s slow adoption

      26 March 2026
      South Africa's energy future hinges on getting wheeling right - Aishah Gire

      South Africa’s energy future hinges on getting wheeling right

      10 March 2026
      Free calls, dead voice and Shameel Joosub's Spanish ghost - Duncan McLeod

      Apple just dropped a bomb on the Windows world

      5 March 2026
      R230-million in the bag for Endeavor's third Harvest Fund - Alison Collier

      VC’s centre of gravity is shifting – and South Africa is in the frame

      3 March 2026
    • Company Hubs
      • 1Stream
      • Africa Data Centres
      • AfriGIS
      • Altron Digital Business
      • Altron Document Solutions
      • Altron Group
      • Arctic Wolf
      • Ascent Technology
      • AvertITD
      • BBD
      • Braintree
      • CallMiner
      • CambriLearn
      • Contactable
      • CYBER1 Solutions
      • Digicloud Africa
      • Digimune
      • Domains.co.za
      • ESET
      • Euphoria Telecom
      • HOSTAFRICA
      • Incredible Business
      • iONLINE
      • IQbusiness
      • Iris Network Systems
      • Kaspersky
      • LSD Open
      • Mitel
      • NEC XON
      • Netstar
      • Network Platforms
      • Next DLP
      • Ovations
      • Paracon
      • Paratus
      • Q-KON
      • SevenC
      • SkyWire
      • Solid8 Technologies
      • Telit Cinterion
      • Telviva
      • Tenable
      • Vertiv
      • Videri Digital
      • Vodacom Business
      • Wipro
      • Workday
      • XLink
    • Sections
      • AI and machine learning
      • Banking
      • Broadcasting and Media
      • Cloud services
      • Contact centres and CX
      • Cryptocurrencies
      • Education and skills
      • Electronics and hardware
      • Energy and sustainability
      • Enterprise software
      • Financial services
      • HealthTech
      • Information security
      • Internet and connectivity
      • Internet of Things
      • Investment
      • IT services
      • Lifestyle
      • Motoring
      • Policy and regulation
      • Public sector
      • Retail and e-commerce
      • Satellite communications
      • Science
      • SMEs and start-ups
      • Social media
      • Talent and leadership
      • Telecoms
    • Events
    • Advertise
    TechCentralTechCentral
    Home » In-depth » What if Moore’s Law fails?

    What if Moore’s Law fails?

    By The Conversation27 August 2015
    Twitter LinkedIn Facebook WhatsApp Email Telegram Copy Link
    News Alerts
    WhatsApp

    intel-core-i7-640

    The semiconducting silicon chip launched the revolution of electronics and computerisation that has made life in the opening years of the 21st century scarcely recognisable from the start of the last. Silicon integrated circuits underpin practically everything we take for granted now in our interconnected, digital world: controlling the systems we use and allowing us to access and share information at will.

    The rate of progress since the first silicon transistor in 1947 has been enormous, with the number of transistors on a single chip growing from a few thousand in the earliest integrated circuits to more than 2bn today. Moore’s Law — that transistor density will double every two years — still holds true 50 years after it was proposed.

    Nevertheless, silicon electronics faces a challenge: the latest circuits measure just 7nm wide — between a red blood cell (7 500nm) and a single strand of DNA (2,5nm). The size of individual silicon atoms (around 0,2nm) would be a hard physical limit (with circuits one atom wide), but its behaviour becomes unstable and difficult to control before then.

    Without the ability to shrink integrated circuits further, silicon cannot continue producing the gains it has so far. Meeting this challenge may require rethinking how we manufacture devices, or even whether we need an alternative to silicon itself.

    To understand the challenge, we must look at why silicon became the material of choice for electronics. While it has many points in its favour — abundant, relatively easy to process, has good physical properties and possesses a stable native oxide (SiO2) which happens to be a good insulator — it also has several drawbacks.

    For example, a great advantage of combining more and more transistors into a single chip is that it enables an integrated circuit to process information faster. But this speed boost depends critically on how easily electrons are able to move within the semiconductor material. This is known as electron mobility, and while electrons in silicon are quite mobile, they are much more so in other semiconductor materials such as gallium arsenide, indium arsenide and indium antimonide.

    The useful conductive properties of semiconductors don’t just concern the movement of electrons, however, but also the movement of what are called electron holes — the gaps left behind in the lattice of electrons circling around the nucleus after electrons have been pushed out.

    Gordon Moore
    Gordon Moore

    Modern integrated circuits use a technique called complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS), which uses a pair of transistors, one using electrons and the other electron holes. But electron hole mobility in silicon is very poor, and this is a barrier to higher performance — so much so that for several years, manufacturers have had to boost it by including germanium with the silicon.

    Silicon’s second problem is that performance degrades badly at high temperatures. Modern integrated circuits with billions of transistors generate considerable heat, which is why a lot of effort goes into cooling them — think of the fans and heatsinks strapped to a typical desktop computer processor. Alternative semiconductors such as gallium nitride (GaN) and silicon carbide (SiC) cope much better at higher temperatures, which means they can be run faster and have begun to replace silicon in critical high-power applications such as amplifiers.

    Lastly, silicon is very poor at transmitting light. While lasers, LEDs and other photonic devices are commonplace today, they use alternative semiconductor compounds to silicon. As a result, two distinct industries have evolved: silicon for electronics and compound semiconductors for photonics. This situation has existed for years, but now there is a big push to combine electronics and photonics on a single chip. For the manufacturers, that’s quite a problem.

    New materials for future
    Of the many materials under investigation as partners for silicon to improve its electronic performance, perhaps three have promise in the short term.

    The first concerns silicon’s poor electron hole mobility. A small amount of germanium is already added to improve this, but using large amounts or even a move to all-germanium transistors would be better still. Germanium was the first material used for semiconductor devices, so really this is a “back to the future” move. But realigning the established industry around germanium would be quite a problem for manufacturers.

    The second concerns metal oxides. Silicon dioxide was used within transistors for many years, but with miniaturisation the layer of silicon dioxide has shrunk to be so thin that it has begun to lose its insulating properties, leading to unreliable transistors. Despite a move to using rare-earth hafnium dioxide (HfO2) as a replacement insulator, the search is on for alternatives with even better insulating properties.

    Most interesting, perhaps, is the use of so-called III-V compound semiconductors, particularly those containing indium such as indium arsenide and indium antimonide. These semiconductors have electron mobility up to 50 times higher than silicon. When combined with germanium-rich transistors, this approach could provide a major speed increase.

    silicon-640

    Yet all is not as simple as it seems. Silicon, germanium, oxides and the III-V materials are crystalline structures that depend on the integrity of the crystal for their properties. We cannot simply throw them together with silicon and get the best of both. Dealing with this problem, crystal lattice mismatch, is the major ongoing technological challenge.

    Despite its limitations, silicon electronics has proved adaptable, able to be fashioned into reliable, mass market devices available at minimal cost. So despite headlines about the “end of silicon” or the spectacular (and sometimes rather unrealistic) promise of alternative materials, silicon is still king and, backed by a huge and extremely well-developed global industry, will not be deposed in our lifetime.

    Instead, progress in electronics will come from improving silicon by integrating other materials. Companies such as IBM and Intel and university labs worldwide have poured time and effort into this challenge, and the results are promising: a hybrid approach that blends III-V materials, silicon and germanium could reach the market within a few years. Compound semiconductors have already found important uses in lasers, LED lighting/displays and solar panels where silicon simply cannot compete. More advanced compounds will be needed as electronic devices become progressively smaller and lower powered and also for high-power electronics where their characteristics are a significant improvement upon silicon’s capabilities.

    The future of electronics is bright, and it’s still going to be largely based on silicon — but now that silicon comes in many different flavours.The Conversation

    • Mark Hopkinson is professor of semiconductor materials at the University of Sheffield
    • This article was originally published on The Conversation
    Follow TechCentral on Google News Add TechCentral as your preferred source on Google


    Gordon Moore IBM Intel Mark Hopkinson
    WhatsApp YouTube
    Share. Facebook Twitter LinkedIn WhatsApp Telegram Email Copy Link
    Previous ArticleSpooks mum on SABC ‘spy operation’
    Next Article Dep’t defends Muthambi’s R600 000 trip

    Related Posts

    The remarkable turnaround at Intel

    The remarkable turnaround at Intel

    26 April 2026
    South Africa Inc must wake up to quantum threat - Phumzile Madonsela

    South Africa Inc must wake up to quantum threat

    7 April 2026
    ASML sets its sights on the next era of AI silicon

    ASML sets its sights on the next era of AI silicon

    2 March 2026
    Company News
    AI governance: the key to growth for SA's financial institutions - Fenergo

    AI governance: the key to growth for SA’s financial institutions

    28 April 2026
    Turn passion into presence with a .digital domain name - Domains.co.za

    Turn passion into presence with a .digital domain name

    28 April 2026
    Cybersecurity in the age of AI: why speed and trust now define resilience - iqbusiness

    Cybersecurity in the AI age: speed and trust define resilience

    24 April 2026
    Opinion
    Free calls, dead voice and Shameel Joosub's Spanish ghost - Duncan McLeod

    Free calls, dead voice and Shameel Joosub’s Spanish ghost

    22 April 2026
    The conflict of interest at the heart of PayShap's slow adoption - Cheslyn Jacobs

    The conflict of interest at the heart of PayShap’s slow adoption

    26 March 2026
    South Africa's energy future hinges on getting wheeling right - Aishah Gire

    South Africa’s energy future hinges on getting wheeling right

    10 March 2026

    Subscribe to Updates

    Get the best South African technology news and analysis delivered to your e-mail inbox every morning.

    Latest Posts
    State broadband merger limps into a second decade - Solly Malatsi

    State broadband merger limps into a second decade

    28 April 2026
    The AI policy that AI broke

    The AI policy that AI broke

    28 April 2026
    New DStv owner Canal+ confirms JSE listing date

    New DStv owner Canal+ confirms JSE listing date

    28 April 2026
    Pivotal week for US tech stocks

    Pivotal week for US tech stocks

    28 April 2026
    © 2009 - 2026 NewsCentral Media
    • Cookie policy (ZA)
    • TechCentral – privacy and Popia

    Type above and press Enter to search. Press Esc to cancel.

    Manage consent

    TechCentral uses cookies to enhance its offerings. Consenting to these technologies allows us to serve you better. Not consenting or withdrawing consent may adversely affect certain features and functions of the website.

    Functional Always active
    The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
    Preferences
    The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
    Statistics
    The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes. The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
    Marketing
    The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
    • Manage options
    • Manage services
    • Manage {vendor_count} vendors
    • Read more about these purposes
    View preferences
    • {title}
    • {title}
    • {title}