Close Menu
TechCentralTechCentral

    Subscribe to the newsletter

    Get the best South African technology news and analysis delivered to your e-mail inbox every morning.

    Facebook X (Twitter) YouTube LinkedIn
    WhatsApp Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn YouTube
    TechCentralTechCentral
    • News
      Former Dimension Data Group CEO Jason Goodall

      Jason Goodall in bombshell confession in Dimension Data Campus saga

      7 October 2026
      'We will not be judged by Goodall': former Dimension Data executives fight back - Jeremy Ord

      ‘We will not be judged by Goodall’: former Dimension Data executives fight back

      7 October 2026
      Seacom CEO Alpheus Mangale on special leave pending probe

      Seacom CEO Alpheus Mangale on special leave pending probe

      7 October 2026
      The giant batteries coming to South Africa's grid - Energy minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa

      The giant batteries coming to South Africa’s grid

      7 October 2026
      South Pole neutrino hunter wins Nobel Prize in Physics - Francis Halzen

      South Pole neutrino hunter wins Nobel Prize in Physics

      7 October 2026
    • World
      SpaceX to borrow $40-billion to buy Nvidia chips

      SpaceX to borrow $40-billion to buy Nvidia chips

      7 October 2026
      BMW restructuring plan bets on AI and new models

      BMW restructuring plan bets on AI and new models

      1 October 2026
      OpenAI's rogue agent problem keeps getting bigger - Sam Altman

      OpenAI’s rogue agent problem keeps getting bigger

      28 September 2026
      The new battle over the desktop

      The new battle over the desktop

      23 September 2026
      AMD is now worth a trillion dollars - Lisa Su

      AMD is now worth a trillion dollars

      22 September 2026
    • In-depth

      10 days that changed the course of AI

      21 September 2026
      Meta to the AI industry: slow down without us - Mark Zuckerberg

      Meta to the AI industry: slow down without us

      16 September 2026
      Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis. Image: John Sears

      The plan to stop AI from breaking the world

      16 July 2026
      The internet has a Strait of Hormuz problem

      The internet has a Strait of Hormuz problem

      15 July 2026
      AI boom sparks rally, frenzy and fear

      AI boom sparks rally, frenzy and fear

      11 June 2026
    • TCS
      Meet the CIO | Vodacom's Mohamed Sami on the agentic future

      Meet the CIO | Vodacom’s Mohamed Sami on the agentic future

      5 October 2026
      Lexi Novitske, general partner at Norrsken22, on the TechCentral Show

      TCS | Norrsken22’s Lexi Novitske on how China is winning African tech

      1 October 2026
      TCS | Dominic White and Adam Ely on AI agents going rogue

      TCS | Dominic White and Adam Ely on AI agents going rogue

      29 September 2026
      TCS | Octotel's Trevor van Zyl on the fibre merger question

      TCS | Octotel’s Trevor van Zyl on the MetroFibre merger question

      16 September 2026
      Meet the CIO | Shoprite's Chris Shortt on what a supermarket becomes

      Meet the CIO | Shoprite’s Chris Shortt on what a supermarket becomes

      9 September 2026
    • Opinion
      Let South Africans jailbreak their way to digital sovereignty - Dirk de Vos

      Let South Africans jailbreak their way to digital sovereignty

      5 October 2026
      South Africa's next energy crisis is in the accounts department - Craig Holmes

      South Africa’s next energy crisis is in the accounts department

      29 September 2026
      The steam engine lesson AI doomsayers keep missing - Sam Clarke

      The steam engine lesson AI doomsayers keep missing

      28 September 2026
      Let South Africans jailbreak their way to digital sovereignty - Dirk de Vos

      Regulating AI: apply the laws we have first

      21 September 2026
      What Revolut can and cannot take from South Africa's banks - Pambos Soteriades

      What Revolut can and cannot take from South Africa’s banks

      15 September 2026
    • Company News
      • 1Stream
      • Africa Data Centres
      • AfriGIS
      • Altron Digital Business
      • Altron Document Solutions
      • Altron Group
      • Arctic Wolf
      • Ascent Technology
      • AvertITD
      • BBD
      • Braintree
      • CallMiner
      • CambriLearn
      • CM.com
      • Contactable
      • CYBER1 Solutions
      • Digicloud Africa
      • Digimune
      • Domains.co.za
      • ESET
      • Euphoria Telecom
      • HOSTAFRICA
      • Incredible Business
      • iONLINE
      • IQbusiness
      • Iris Network Systems
      • Kaspersky
      • LSD Open
      • Mitel
      • NEC XON
      • Netstar
      • Network Platforms
      • Next DLP
      • Ovations
      • Paracon
      • Paratus
      • Publishared
      • Q-KON
      • SevenC
      • SkyWire
      • Solid8 Technologies
      • Telit Cinterion
      • Telviva
      • Tenable
      • Vertiv
      • Videri Digital
      • Vodacom Business
      • Vox
      • Wipro
      • Workday
      • XLink
    • Sections
      • AI and machine learning
      • Banking
      • Broadcasting and Media
      • Cloud services
      • Contact centres and CX
      • Cryptocurrencies
      • Education and skills
      • Electronics and hardware
      • Energy and sustainability
      • Enterprise software
      • Financial services
      • HealthTech
      • Information security
      • Internet and connectivity
      • Internet of Things
      • Investment
      • IT services
      • Lifestyle
      • Policy and regulation
      • Public sector
      • Retail and e-commerce
      • Satellite communications
      • Science
      • SMEs and start-ups
      • Social media
      • Talent and leadership
      • Telecoms
      • Watts & Wheels
    • Events
    • Advertise
    TechCentralTechCentral
    Home » Sections » Energy and sustainability » How mathematical modelling could be used to predict the Eskom crisis

    How mathematical modelling could be used to predict the Eskom crisis

    By The Conversation2 March 2020
    Twitter LinkedIn Facebook WhatsApp Email Telegram Copy Link
    Get breaking news on WhatsApp

    The motion of all solid objects and fluids can be described using the unifying language of mathematics. Wind movement, turbulence in the oceans, the migration of butterflies in a big city: all these phenomena can be better understood using mathematics.

    Imagine dropping a coin from a tall building. The simple, yet brilliant, result derived by Isaac Newton – that the resultant force equals mass times acceleration – can be used to predict the position of the coin at any given time. The velocity at which the coin reaches the ground can also be calculated with ease. This is a prime example of a mathematical model that can be used to explain what we observe in reality.

    Mathematics can be used to solve very complex problems – far more complicated than that of a coin falling under gravity. Industries are in no short supply of such problems. Mathematical techniques can explain how the world works and make it better. Mathematical modelling is capable of saving lives, assisting in policy and decision making, and optimising economic growth. It can also be exploited to help understand the universe and the conditions needed to sustain life.

    A lack of power supply is not only a nuisance in domestic households, it has a fundamental effect on the economy

    My own work, for example, has involved developing mathematical models for use in industries such as sugar, mining and energy conservation. I’ve worked with researchers from different disciplines to understand the challenges that these industries face, and to help mitigate their effects. This research shows how, far from being simply an abstract area of knowledge, mathematics has many important and practical uses in the real world.

    For instance, our research in the mining industry deals with roof collapse in underground mines. Such collapses pose a serious concern to the safety of miners, as well as the efficiency of mining operations. It’s important to identify possible sections of a mine roof that may be prone to collapse. That’s where mathematical modelling comes in: with further investigation and research, we can use it to predict roof collapses. Miners can be safely evacuated before something like this happens.

    Fatality rate

    South Africa, where I conduct my research, had a record-low number of deaths due to mining related incidents in 2019. But even a single preventable death is unacceptable. Mathematical modelling can help to inform safety measures and keep the fatality rate down.

    The sugar industry has also benefited from mathematical modelling. Manufacturers want to produce as many sugar crystals as possible, in minimal time. We have used mathematical modelling to suggest ways in which the process of separating molasses from the sugar crystals can be speeded up so that the production time of sugar can be optimised.

    This work doesn’t just benefit individual sugar producers. In South Africa, the sugar industry not only provides job opportunities, but surplus sugar is also exported. Getting as much of the end product as possible out of the raw materials contributes to the economy by increasing the amount of sugar exported to other countries.

    Our work on the power grid could be assessed by economists to test it against real-world figures, then applied by policy makers

    One of the research projects I have been involved with focuses on a very hot topic in South Africa and elsewhere on the African continent: power supply.

    A lack of power supply is not only a nuisance in domestic households, it has a fundamental effect on the economy. One of the relevant issues here is what to charge users. Tariffs, which are the price per unit of electricity, are based on numerous factors. High tariff price increases have led to households and businesses investing in renewable energy sources and removing themselves from the grid. Once this happens, less income is available to cross-subsidise the poor, who would otherwise not have access to electricity.

    Mathematical modelling can be used to show – as we have done – that increasing tariff prices, which encourages consumers to invest in alternative energy supplies, will lead to exactly the situation described above, putting Eskom at risk.

    Valuable role

    This is an example of how mathematical modelling can play a valuable role in informing policy decisions. Our research also highlights the importance of collaboration in tackling difficult problems in industry.

    This is a crucial element of mathematical modelling: it unifies researchers from different academic backgrounds. Developing a mathematical model is really just the start of a research project. Predictions obtained from any mathematical model need to be studied by experts in order to verify whether the model is a valid and accurate representation of the real-world problem of interest. So, for instance, our work on the power grid could be assessed by economists to test it against real-world figures, then applied by policy makers.The Conversation

    • Written by Ashleigh Jane Hutchinson, deputy director of the DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Mathematical and Statistical Sciences and senior lecturer in the School of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics, University of the Witwatersrand
    • This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons licence
    Add TechCentral as a preferred source on GoogleFollow TechCentral on Google NewsGet breaking news on WhatsApp


    Ashleigh Jane Hutchinson Eskom
    WhatsApp YouTube
    Share. Facebook Twitter LinkedIn WhatsApp Telegram Email Copy Link
    Previous ArticleVox introduces easy, affordable e-mail archiving for SMEs
    Next Article Petrol price to tumble despite weak rand

    Related Posts

    The giant batteries coming to South Africa's grid - Energy minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa

    The giant batteries coming to South Africa’s grid

    7 October 2026
    Nersa wants five-year ban on automated electricity trading

    Nersa wants five-year ban on automated electricity trading

    6 October 2026
    Eskom has a R1.20/kWh offer for bitcoin miners

    Eskom has a R1.20/kWh offer for bitcoin miners

    2 October 2026
    Company News
    30 years of Hisense in South Africa: inside the Atlantis factory

    30 years of Hisense in South Africa: inside the Atlantis factory

    7 October 2026
    Four Microsoft dates before February: the cost is in the calendar - Ascent Technology, Johan Lamberts

    Four Microsoft dates before February: the cost is in the calendar

    7 October 2026
    Paratus Namibia launches Eutelsat's OneWeb LEO connectivity

    Paratus Namibia launches Eutelsat’s OneWeb LEO connectivity

    7 October 2026
    Opinion
    Let South Africans jailbreak their way to digital sovereignty - Dirk de Vos

    Let South Africans jailbreak their way to digital sovereignty

    5 October 2026
    South Africa's next energy crisis is in the accounts department - Craig Holmes

    South Africa’s next energy crisis is in the accounts department

    29 September 2026
    The steam engine lesson AI doomsayers keep missing - Sam Clarke

    The steam engine lesson AI doomsayers keep missing

    28 September 2026

    Subscribe to Updates

    Get the best South African technology news and analysis delivered to your e-mail inbox every morning.

    Latest Posts
    Former Dimension Data Group CEO Jason Goodall

    Jason Goodall in bombshell confession in Dimension Data Campus saga

    7 October 2026
    'We will not be judged by Goodall': former Dimension Data executives fight back - Jeremy Ord

    ‘We will not be judged by Goodall’: former Dimension Data executives fight back

    7 October 2026
    Seacom CEO Alpheus Mangale on special leave pending probe

    Seacom CEO Alpheus Mangale on special leave pending probe

    7 October 2026
    The giant batteries coming to South Africa's grid - Energy minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa

    The giant batteries coming to South Africa’s grid

    7 October 2026
    © 2009 - 2026 NewsCentral Media
    Built and maintained by Chronon
    • Cookie policy (ZA)
    • TechCentral – privacy and Popia

    Type above and press Enter to search. Press Esc to cancel.

    Manage consent

    TechCentral uses cookies to enhance its offerings. Consenting to these technologies allows us to serve you better. Not consenting or withdrawing consent may adversely affect certain features and functions of the website.

    Functional Always active
    The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
    Preferences
    The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
    Statistics
    The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes. The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
    Marketing
    The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
    • Manage options
    • Manage services
    • Manage {vendor_count} vendors
    • Read more about these purposes
    View preferences
    • {title}
    • {title}
    • {title}
    🇿🇦 Sign up to the TechCentral newsletter