South Africa’s structural reform programme has lost momentum for the first time since formal tracking began, with electricity reforms deteriorating even as Eskom itself delivers its most stable performance in years.
The fourth quarterly review of the BLSA Reform Tracker, covering April to June 2026, shows the overall reform completion index slipping to 71.5 from 71.75 – the first quarter-on-quarter decline in the tracker’s history. Of the 172 reform deliverables that could be compared like for like with the previous quarter, 20 lost ground. Only 13 advanced.
“This quarter is the first time we’ve seen more reforms lose ground than gain it,” said Business Leadership South Africa CEO Busisiwe Mavuso in a statement on Thursday.
The tracker, developed by research consultancy Krutham, monitors 247 reform deliverables across economic, criminal justice and governance categories, scoring each quarterly. The index remains 26% above its March 2024 baseline.
In the electricity sector, the reform score fell 2.2% to 67.5 – at the very moment the grid itself looks healthier than it has in years. Eskom is forecasting no load shedding this winter, with surpluses of more than 5GW on the back of improved plant reliability and reduced demand.
But the surplus has a dark side. It has been accompanied by aggressive curtailment of renewable independent power producers – instructing wind and solar plants to switch off when their output isn’t needed – leaving a R2-billion backlog in curtailment compensation payments and some IPPs facing revenue shortfalls of around 9%.
Investment case
In other words, the same abundance that has ended load shedding is now undermining the investment case for the private generation that helped end it.
The structural reforms meant to open the electricity market are slipping, too. Virtual wheeling protocols recorded one of the quarter’s steepest declines, falling 18.75 points after the finalisation of trading rules missed its April deadline – keeping private electricity traders on the sidelines.
Read: Memo to Eskom: Telkom already lost this fight
The South African Wholesale Electricity Market (Sawem) and the independent transmission system operator both face tight, at-risk timelines heading into the third quarter. BLSA describes the delays to the transmission system operator as “concerning”, noting that without it “a competitive market becomes impossible”.
The underlying plumbing problems persist: municipal debt to Eskom has breached R114-billion, with distribution agency agreements offered as a stopgap rather than a structural fix, and transmission line roll-out badly missed its 2025/2026 target, delivering 270.8km against a planned 423km.
Freight logistics eased 0.5% to 68.8, though the quarter delivered milestones: Transnet’s Rail Infrastructure Manager signed access agreements with all 11 newly qualified private train operating companies – taking the network from a single operator to 12, with a projected 24Mt/year in additional freight volumes – and the Durban Container Terminal Pier 2 concession reached financial close.
But BLSA warned that Transnet “still designs and runs the very processes meant to open its network to competition”, and private operators are locking in commercial terms against tariffs set by Transnet itself – before the Transport Economic Regulator is operational. The National Rail Bill was not tabled during the quarter, though the release of the rolling stock leasing company RFP on 22 June was flagged as a positive step.
Bright spots
Not everything went backwards. Visa reforms advanced 3.3% on the strength of the Electronic Travel Authorisation system, which posted the quarter’s single largest individual gain. Governance was the only pillar to advance, lifted by the Public Service Amendment Act – which came into effect on 1 April – which devolves staffing powers from ministers to heads of department, a longstanding demand of governance reformers.
And the tracker’s universe grew, with the Synthetic Financial Centre endorsed in the February budget entering at a lowly 31.25 and Road Accident Fund reform joining under a new transport category.
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“Efficiently functioning energy and transport and logistics markets, as well as water systems and municipalities that can deliver services, will provide a strong foundation from which the economy will be able to grow at meaningful rates,” BLSA said. — © 2026 NewsCentral Media
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