Apple’s record-breaking rally has invited scepticism as to whether its artificial intelligence strategy justifies the stock’s valuation.

The shares surged to a fresh all-time high last week, briefly taking Apple back above Microsoft as the world’s most valuable company after it unveiled new AI features that investors hope will spur a massive upgrade cycle among users.

That’s pushed the valuation to around 30x forward earnings, a level that the stock has struggled to sustain in the past. While Apple’s plans were cheered by investors seeking faster revenue growth and higher returns on capital at the firm, questions remain as to when exactly that boost will arrive.

“I hope the market is right, but so far we haven’t seen enough to be sure,” said David Daglio, who manages US$7.9-billion as chief investment officer at TwinFocus Capital Partners. “I wouldn’t put new money to work here. The risk-reward is negative at best.”

The timing of when Apple’s AI strategy will deliver a meaningful boost to revenue is key. The roll-out of new AI offerings may be slower than investors want, stretching into 2025. The stock fell 2% on Thursday, the most in about two months.

Wall Street expects Apple’s revenue growth to tick back up in the second half of 2024 but end the year at just 1% before accelerating to 7% in 2025. In the iPhone segment, revenue is forecast to slip in the last two quarters of 2024, when compared to the same period a year earlier.

Top of mind

Climbing valuations are top of mind for investors considering how to play the next leg of the AI rally. Other than Apple, gains to record highs in shares of Microsoft and Nvidia have pushed the broader market higher, but have also pushed up price-to-earnings ratios for the stocks. Microsoft trades at about 34x forward earnings, while Nvidia trades at 43x. The Nasdaq 100 index trades at about 27x forward earnings.

Some see room for Apple shares to run, even near all-time highs. JPMorgan analysts led by Samik Chatterjee this week boosted their price target to $245 from $225, saying that new AI features should kick off an iPhone upgrade cycle and drive earnings.

Still, Nancy Tengler, CEO at Laffer Tengler Investments, says she has removed Apple from her best ideas list because of its valuation.

“There’s more growth visibility in other names, like Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle, Broadcom,” she said. “There are other opportunities we’re taking advantage of, and places where valuations aren’t as stretched.” — Carmen Reinicke and Ryan Vlastelica, with Subrat Patnaik and Jeran Wittenstein, (c) 2024 Reuters