The latest Visual Networking Index (VNI) mobile forecast from Cisco predicts that 4G mobile data traffic in South Africa will grow at an annual compound growth rate of 110% over the next four years.

Fourth-generation broadband networks will account for 56,1% of total mobile data traffic in South Africa by 2019, compared to 15,7% at the end of 2014, according to Cisco.

By 2019, 4G connections will be 23,2% of total mobile connections, compared to just 2,2% in 2014. This will largely be led by the growing number of smart connections in South Africa, which are expected to increase to 62% of mobile connections by 2019, from 21% in 2014.

The VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast for 2014 to 2019 shows, too, that the ongoing adoption of more powerful devices and machine-to-machine connections may see 3G surpassing 2G as the top cellular technology, based on connection share, by 2016.

The forecast predicts that Wi-Fi data offloading — the use of complementary network technologies for delivering data originally targeted for cellular networks globally – will surpass that of cellular traffic by 2019.

“The amount of traffic offloaded from 4G will be 46% by 2019, compared to 40% at the end of 2014. Traffic offloaded from 3G will go up to 42% from 35% in the same time period.”

Of all Internet traffic generated in South Africa in 2014, 57% was Wi-Fi and 13% was mobile. By 2019, 59% will be Wi-Fi and 32% will be mobile, the Cisco report says.

In South Africa, 4G tablet traffic will be 93% of total tablet traffic by 2019, compared to 56,5% at the end of 2014. 4G smartphone traffic will be 51% of total smartphone traffic by 2019, compared to 12,9% at the end of 2014.

4G traffic flowing across South African networks will grow 41-fold from 2014 to 2019.

The average 3G speed will grow 2,1-fold (16% compound annual growth rate) from 2014 to 2019 and the average 2G speed will grow 1,3-fold (5%/year compounded) in the same time period.

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