Fresh from besting Tesla in quarterly revenue for the first time as an electric vehicle company, BYD now has legacy car makers in its sight.

The extraordinary sales volumes being pumped out by China’s best-selling car brand means BYD has a shot at beating Ford in terms of annual shipments this year, a milestone that would cement its position as a top 10 car maker globally.

BYD kicked off the December quarter by selling a record half a million vehicles in October. That impressive number puts it nearly on par with Ford year-to-date and almost all analysts covering BYD expect the momentum to continue. The US automaker, which only reports global sales on a quarterly basis, has been averaging around 1.1 million vehicles a quarter for the past three such periods.

“Getting to four million is a stunning milestone,” motoring industry consultant Michael Dunne said, referring to BYD’s reported annual target. “BYD will soon be seeing Ford in the rear-view mirror.”

Surpassing one of Detroit’s big three car makers will be possible if BYD keeps up its strong run. Demand in China is in part being stoked by government subsidies encouraging people to trade in their older EVs or combustion engine cars, while BYD’s strong line up of hybrids is good for consumers who aren’t quite ready to make the switch to a fully electric vehicle.

Dunne, a former General Motors executive, described BYD’s sales ramp up as “velocity without precedent”.

BYD’s third quarter set the tone for what’s possible. The Shenzhen-based motoring giant managed to outsell Ford by 40 000 units, delivering some 1.13 million mostly passenger cars, as well as a few thousand trucks and buses.

Tough landscape

Legacy car makers like Ford are finding the competitive landscape increasingly tough as Chinese motoring brands expand everywhere from Southeast Asia to Europe and Latin America. Nissan, Volkswagen and Stellantis are all confronting similar crises around shrinking profits, excess capacity and bloated workforces.

Ford may find favourable support under US President-elect Donald Trump, who despite his cosiness with Elon Musk, has pledged to rescind funding for the Biden administration’s signature 2022 climate law, which includes more than US$8.5-billion in incentives for individuals and families to decarbonise their lives.

Read: Uber, BYD in deal to roll out EVs worldwide

BYD doesn’t sell passenger vehicles in the US but that doesn’t seem to be holding the company back much. Senior vice president He Zhiqi bragged on his Weibo account earlier this month that BYD increased production capacity by almost 200 000 units in the August to October period by hiring around the same number of people for its assembly and components businesses. BYD’s output for October was 534 003 units.

“BYD has no peer in the world right now,” Tu Le, at Detroit-based automotive advisory firm Sino Auto Insights, said. “Legacy automakers just seem to be collateral damage as BYD goes like a freight train towards becoming the largest automaker in the world.”

Nissan, in the headlines last week for all the wrong reasons as it slashes payroll, production and its forecasts for this fiscal year, may be another scalp for BYD. The struggling Japanese car maker is on track to fall behind BYD in terms of revenue this year.

Meantime, BYD is also riding high in terms of the most valuable car makers by market capitalisation.

Back in June 2022 when BYD’s Hong Kong-listed stock hit an all-time high, the Chinese car maker was worth more than Ford, GM and Jeep brand owner Stellantis — combined. It almost achieved that goal again last month as the US car makers’ woes deepened but didn’t quite get there. The way things are going, BYD pundits surely won’t have to wait too long. — Danny Lee, (c) 2024 Bloomberg LP

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