A slow but steady improvement in the macroeconomic environment in 2010 should support a return to modest growth in overall IT spending, according to analyst group Gartner. Worldwide IT spending will reach $3,4 trillion in 2010, a 4,6% increase from 2009, with emerging markets in Africa and Latin America leading the upswing.

Though modest, this projected growth represents a significant improvement from 2009, when worldwide IT spending declined 4,6%, it says. All major segments (computing hardware, software, IT services, telecommunications and telecoms services) are expected to grow in 2010 (see table below).

“Last quarter, we did not expect to see IT spending levels recover to 2008 levels until 2011,” says Gartner research vice-president Richard Gordon. ” However, now, with the upward revision to the current dollar forecast, we are projecting that global IT spending this year will approach the level seen in 2008.”

Gartner had previously expected IT spending to reach $3,4 trillion again only in 2011. “It reflects a bounce back in underlying IT spending from the sharp drop in 2009.

“Though this forecast might seem bullish at first, it’s important to factor in the impact that exchange rates will have on the markets,” Gordon says. “Much of the increase in our revised 2010 forecast can be attributed to a projected decline in the value of the US dollar compared to 2009.”

From a regional perspective, Gartner’s IT spending forecast reflects the economic situation in each region and country, with emerging markets leading the way, both in the short and longer term. However, because of the scale of IT spending in North America and Western Europe, these regions weigh heavily in the global IT spending growth rate overall.

IT spending growth in emerging markets (with the exception of central and eastern Europe and some of the Gulf states) is expected to lead the way, with spending forecast to grow 9,3% in Latin America, 7,7% in the Middle East and Africa and 7% in Asia/Pacific. Recovery in Western Europe, the US and Japan will start more slowly, with Western Europe increasing 5,2%, the US growing 2,5%, and Japan increasing 1,8%. — Staff reporter, TechCentral