Apple has become a frequent target for attacks by US President Donald Trump, a factor that has held the stock back as other big technology companies have rebounded over the past month.
The iPhone maker was the biggest company in the world at the start of May, but it has fallen since then to third, behind Microsoft and Nvidia.
It underperformed again this week after OpenAI announced the acquisition of a start-up co-founded by Apple veteran Jony Ive that is focused on artificial intelligence-fuelled hardware. The prospect of shiny new alternatives to Apple’s devices added to concerns about the company’s struggle to compete in the AI arms race.
But a more unusual threat stems from Trump’s focus on the company over its global manufacturing process. Earlier this month, Trump said he “had a little problem with Tim Cook”, and said that he had asked Apple’s CEO to stop building plants in India.
“It’s a red flag for me that Trump continues to single out Apple and seems to have something against them,” said Randy Hare, director of equity research at Huntington National Bank. “It doesn’t mean that Trump is going to do anything more, but you can’t predict what’s going to happen, and that makes me cautious.”
Political risk has been a driver of markets overall this year, as seen in Wednesday’s stock selloff over concerns about the ballooning deficit, an issue that prompted Moody’s to downgrade the US credit rating. Investors are also monitoring the latest developments regarding the Trump administration’s signature tax bill.
Apple’s fate
Apple’s fate has been more closely tied to the trade war and it has avoided the worst-case scenario that seemed plausible last month. While shares saw incredible tariff-related volatility and have recently been rangebound, the stock is still up 17% from the low it hit after the tariffs were first announced in early April.
Not long after, the Trump administration exempted key categories of electronics — including smartphones and computers — from its so-called reciprocal tariffs, and the US and China agreed to temporarily lower tariffs on each other’s products.
The CBOE Apple VIX, which tracks a market estimate of future volatility for the stock, has fallen by more than half since hitting a five-year high a month ago.
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Trump also praised Nvidia’s CEO for attending an investment forum in Saudi Arabia while noting that Cook didn’t. “Trump pointing out that Cook isn’t at some summit makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up,” said Huntington National Bank’s Hare. “It doesn’t seem normal to me. Anyone who tells you they can quantify this risk is wrong.”
The stock is down 1.2% over the past month, compared with a rally of 13% for the Nasdaq 100 Index.
Resolving Trump’s concerns around Apple’s foreign manufacturing may be tricky, given the near-impossibility of building iPhones and other hardware in the US, especially in the short term.
Lamar Villere, partner and portfolio manager at Villere & Co said he thinks the concerns about the threats from Trump may be overblown.
“It gets a lot of attention from Trump, not all of it good, but I think investors are growing a callous to his complaints,” Villere said. “It isn’t in any real trouble for not building in the US, and we’re not going to see legislation come out based on anger against one company.”
But the ire targeted at Apple is only one of the geopolitical risks that the company is facing from Trump’s policies. Financial results released earlier this month reinforced concerns about a slowdown in the China market as well as the impact of tariffs.
At least two firms downgraded the stock following the report, cementing its reputation as one of the least-loved big-tech names. It is also “the most under-owned mega cap tech stock”, according to Morgan Stanley, which examined its average weight in the top 100 actively managed institutional portfolios and compared that to its weight in the S&P 500 index exiting the first quarter of 2025.
The political uncertainty comes on top of other headwinds that have kept some investors at bay, including growth concerns and a high multiple. Apple trades at 26.6x estimated earnings, well above its 10-year average of 21x. It also trades at a premium to megacap peers that are expected to grow faster this year, despite its ongoing difficulties in the crucial realm of AI.
Underweight
To Huntington’s Hare, this is a more fundamental issue than the political backdrop.
“We’re not sure how Apple is going to offer AI or when, and that lack of innovation or new products keeps us on the sidelines,” he said. “It’s not growing the way it used to and the multiple continues to be on the high end of things. Those are good reasons to be underweight even before you get to the political climate.” — Additional reporting by John Liu and Zheping Huang, (c) 2025 Bloomberg LP
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