South Africa Inc must wake up to quantum threat

South African enterprises are not putting enough effort into understanding quantum computing and how it could either threaten or benefit their businesses.

That’s according to Phumzile Madonsela, director at the African Quantum Consortium (AQC), who told TechCentral in a recent interview that although AI is the current focus of corporate attention, quantum computing is next – and its impact on society could be more pronounced.

“We’ve seen that there are gaps with people not understanding this technology, especially on the corporate side of things. An example is that given the rise of AI, there has also been a rise in cyberthreats that has been keeping risk managers awake,” Madonsela said.

“But there is another threat for when quantum computing is commercialised. It will break current encryption standards, so how do we protect organisations from that? It begins with having senior leaders understanding the technology and knowing what it actually means for their organisations.”

Estimates for Q-Day – the day on which commercially available quantum computers will be able to break current encryption standards – vary. In a TechCentral article in September 2024, Antti Ropponen, executive partner and global data and application security services leader at IBM Cybersecurity Services, put his Q-Day prediction in the early to mid-2030s. IBM is one of the market leaders in quantum computing.

‘Significant threat’

Google, another major investor in the technology, said last week it is moving to secure its ecosystem against quantum-driven cyberattacks by 2029, warning that advances in the field suggest Q-Day will come sooner than expected.

“Quantum computers will pose a significant threat to current cryptographic standards, specifically to encryption and digital signatures. The threat to encryption is relevant today with store-now-decrypt-later attacks, while digital signatures are a future threat that require the transition to post-quantum cryptography,” said Heather Adkins, Google’s vice president of security engineering.

Read: South Africa needs a national ‘quantum defence strategy

Madonsela said South Africa’s financial sector is particularly vulnerable to quantum cyberthreats. Citing Sanlam’s recent appointment of Theo Mabaso to the newly created role of chief AI officer, she urged corporate South Africa to consider introducing quantum expertise at executive level.

She argued that companies will not adopt quantum technologies unless they are aware of the immediate risks and opportunities the technology presents. Part of AQC’s work, she said, is to demonstrate quantum’s value to different industries – and nothing happens without executive buy-in. Having a quantum expert on the board would help facilitate more meaningful discussions, she said.

“Sanlam’s decision shows that they want to have a person dedicated to understanding how their strategy and business model will be affected by artificial intelligence. They will actually focus on that to see how other aspects like regulation will be impacted. They will also have the business’s interests at heart, versus the approach where companies consult with specialists in AI or other technologies like quantum,” Madonsela said.

AQC is lobbying for the African Union to take a similar stance and appoint a person dedicated to quantum computing as part of the body’s specialised technical committees. South Africa is the only country in the union with a quantum development road map, spearheaded by the department of science, technology & innovation alongside organisations including AQC, the South African Quantum Technology Initiative and the National Institute for Theoretical and Computational Sciences.

Most benefit

The most prominent use cases for the technology include industries that face NP-hard (non-deterministic polynomial-time) optimisation problems, such as logistics, and areas with multivariate inputs such as farming simulations and drug discovery. Of these, Madonsela said the financial services sector is likely to derive the most benefit from quantum computing.

Read: First quantum cyberattack expected by 2030s – IBM

“In financial services, portfolio optimisation is one use case that is very clear, so your investment banks should be taking an interest in that. Once companies have identified those use cases that are relevant to them, you will see more specific roles growing within the organisations,” she said.  – (c) 2026 NewsCentral Media