There are times in our lives when the ability to see into the future would be pretty useful. Whenever we make decisions – particularly big decisions – we’re all wrestling with uncertainty. From the best subject to study at university, to when to buy our first home, to our choice of romantic partner, how many of us would like to hit the fast-forward button to see what will happen in future as a result of decisions we take today? I know there have been several moments in my life when I’ve wanted to do exactly this, and I know I’m not alone.
Sadly, I am not a clairvoyant. However useful it might be, I’m not able to see into the future and accurately predict what’s going to happen next. And that’s too bad. As a woman working as an international leader in technology, the ability to sniff out the latest trend and predict what the most transformative new innovation is going to be nothing less than a superpower. But in a world where we often celebrate exuberance over experience, it’s worth noting that a long and varied career in technology can be incredibly helpful when it comes to spotting trends. The deep well of experience I have to draw on from my 30 years in this industry is the closest thing I have to a superpower and it’s worth pausing to understand why that might be.
Perspective
Over the past decades, those of us working in the tech industry have witnessed several major shifts. The rise of the internet, mobile computing and cloud computing are just three I could name, but there have been many. I know first-hand how working through these past disruptions provides an all-important context for assessing how new trends like quantum computing, AI or augmented reality might unfold.
We often hear about the role of pattern recognition in problem solving. But it’s also invaluable in appreciating how current technological developments might evolve (or not) based on past trends. Decades of experience enable a technology leader to recognise repeating patterns and cycles in adoption, development and innovation.
First-hand knowledge of technology life cycles
We all know the theory behind technology life cycles and progressions. Rightly, it informs a huge amount of tech industry strategy. However, it is only through experience, gained over many years, that a business leader can intuitively understand the stages of technology life cycles – from inception and hype through to mainstream adoption and decline. It is this understanding that is so important for predicting the trajectory of a specific technology, and specifically whether it will live up to its hype or become obsolete.
I’m not ever complacent about it, but I know that my experience makes it easier to separate long-term impactful innovations from those that are merely part of temporary hype cycles.
Audience insights
It can be hard to know which technologies can be successfully scaled and achieve widespread adoption. Understanding how companies and consumers react to new technology over time provides valuable insights for predicting future trends, especially when considering how technology integrates into daily life or business operations.
Years in the industry gives real clarity about the people who matter most – the consumers and businesses that will be using the technology. This focus on customers means I’m always looking for insights and evidence into how well received technology is going to be before I place my bets on how truly disruptive it is going to be.
The value of a network
It is reasonable to assume that a senior technology leader will have built up a formidable little black book of contacts over the years. These peers, industry leaders and innovators are so important in helping shape a considered, long-term strategic vision. They provide a useful sounding board, give access to early expertise and insights, and private, behind-the-scenes knowledge that a professional beginning to forge their career is unlikely to have.
For me, my network is double-edged. On one hand it helps guide my thoughts and improves my leadership, but it also serves as a constant reminder that, as a senior woman in tech, I need to pay it forward and lift as I climb. One of the most important things I can share with other women, rising up in what is still a traditionally male-dominated industry, is the benefit of my network. Forging these connections might mean the ability for a woman starting out in the tech industry to closely collaborate with another professional, get a promotion or a dream job, or perform better in their current role.
Mentoring
Senior technology leaders are often called upon to mentor emerging talent. This might sound like a purely selfless thing to do, but being able to mentor younger professionals also helps understand the thinking of the next generation. This influence allows senior people to spot emerging talent and ideas that could become the next major technological breakthrough.
The gift of failure
A long career inevitably means experiencing both successes and failures. I’d be lying if I said I enjoy making mistakes and failing, but I have learnt far more from things that did not go my way than from things that did. Recognising what went wrong in past projects helps me avoid making those mistakes all over again. It means I can better recognise potential pitfalls in emerging trends and it sharpens my focus and forces me to do the right thing, rather than the comfortable thing.
Because I’m aware of what can go wrong, I also have a healthy dose of scepticism. I’m a human being and can be susceptible to hype, of course. But I’m also more likely to ask questions and interrogate a concept rather than simply accepting that a shiny new tech trend will hold all the answers.
Taking the long view
A long career in an industry as fast paced and exciting as technology brings with it a profound understanding of how innovation happens. It helps to more accurately forecast future trends and, by drawing on lessons from the past, understanding the dynamics of market adoption and cultivating a deep network of contacts, experienced technology leaders are uniquely positioned to make informed predictions about the future.
Here’s to many more years!
- The author, Angelique de Vries, is president of Workday Europe, Middle East and Africa
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