Despite the abeyance in load shedding for much of 2024, Eskom did not add any new generation capacity to the national grid last year, according to the CSIR.
The CSIR published its annual report on power generation in South Africa on Monday. In it, the state-owned industrial and scientific research agency analysed load shedding statistics and the “energy availability factor” (EAF) between 1 January and 31 December last year.
“Demand for electricity from Eskom continues to trend down,” said Thabo Hlalele, energy centre head at the CSIR, in a presentation of the report.
“The Eskom fleet’s installed capacity remained unchanged in 2024 compared to 2023 and energy generated from coal is relatively higher due to an improved EAF. The energy contribution [from independent power producers] is moderately lower in 2024 compared to 2023,” he added.
Despite not adding any capacity to the grid, Eskom did not suffer a from a power deficit in 2024 because total demand also declined in the same period. Hlalele said this has been an ongoing trend that has been bolstered by increases in private generation, including rooftop solar.
According to the report, Eskom’s EAF improved significantly in 2024, reaching a weekly peak of 70% compared to the 59.92% recorded in the previous year. This improvement helped “significantly reduce” the use of diesel generators.
Hlalele said the increase by 5% percentage points to 60% in Eskom’s annual average fleet EAF was mainly due to the improved performance of its coal plants.
Planned maintenance
“In 2024, coal generation increased by about 12TWh compared to 2023, contributing 177.9TWh of the 220TWh of total system load,” said Hlalele.
The planned capacity loss factor, a measure of planned maintenance, was higher in 2024 compared to 2023, peaking at just under 20% of total system capacity in January and December. Hlalele said the higher levels of planned maintenance had a direct bearing on the lower levels of unplanned capacity loss at Eskom, and thus led to reduced load shedding. Unpanned capacity loss declined by 6.2 percentage points to just over 32% in 2024.
Read: South Africa reduces Eskom debt relief package
The worst load shedding on record was in 2023, with 335 of the 365 days plagued by the rolling power cuts. The improvement in 2024 was dramatic: load shedding decreased by 76% compared to 2023. Eskom’s total energy production, meanwhile, went up by 4% and total energy demand declined by 3% to 33.8GW.
Coal’s capacity factor increased by 2.6 percentage points to 50% in 2024, which had the effect of lowering Eskom’s utilisation of diesel by 6%. The use of diesel-burning open-cycle gas turbines represents a massive expense for Eskom, and the utility has tried to avoid this where possible.
One of the concerns raised in the report regards the affordability of electricity. CSIR data shows that energy regulator Nersa’s 12.74% tariff increase on 1 April (for direct customers) takes South Africa’s average tariff to R1.96/kWh. A 10-year comparison of the increase in the average national tariff versus inflation shows that electricity prices far outpaced inflation over that time.
“The average national electricity tariff has increased by 190% since 2014; the increases are higher than inflation, which averaged 5.2%/year over the same period,” said Hlalele. – © 2025 NewsCentral Media
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