Eskom’s promise of a stable grid through the 2025 winter comes with a significant caveat: South Africans might avoid the dark, but at a steep price.

The power utility projects no load shedding if unplanned outages remain at a minimum this winter, but razor-thin capacity margins and a double-digit electricity tariff hike are sparking fresh concerns about affordability and energy security.

Eskom’s overall progress in terms of reliability has been encouraging, but South Africans won’t celebrate “no load shedding” if they can’t afford the power. Beyond the inconvenience of blackouts, this winter we’re facing a new battle: in the form of a growing cost of living crisis, with a massive squeeze on household and business budgets to keep the heat and lights on.

Eskom’s own data illustrates how precarious the balance is. The utility managed to limit average unplanned breakdowns to about 12.5GW during the summer months – slightly better than expected – and has revised its winter outage forecast down to 13-15GW from last year’s 14-17GW range.

According to Eskom’s winter outlook briefing that took place on 5 May, no load shedding is expected if breakdowns remain under 13GW. But if up to 15GW of capacity is lost, the country could still face around 21 days of stage-2 outages over the season.

What this means is that the buffer between supply and demand is wafer-thin. A couple of major plant failures or cold snaps that cause an outsized surge in demand could tip the scales, forcing Eskom to implement emergency power cuts despite its current confidence.

Skyrocketing

At the same time, the cost of power is skyrocketing for consumers. Energy regulator Nersa has approved a 12.7% electricity tariff increase for Eskom’s direct customers from 1 April, and an 11.3% increase for municipalities from 1 July – right in the middle of winter. This above-inflation hike, following last year’s steep rise, means consumers will pay significantly more for each kilowatt-hour.

There is also a concern that higher tariffs could undermine Eskom’s own recovery if customers respond by using less power (cutting Eskom’s sales) or if more people resort to illegal connections and other desperate measures to keep costs down. Non-payment and power theft are persistent issues that tend to worsen when utility bills become unaffordable.

Read: Solar panic? The truth about SSEG, fines and municipal rules

In response to growing cost pressures on monthly budgets, homeowners and business owners are continuing to make the switch to solar, with limited reliance on the grid. Due to ongoing grid-related challenges, solar solution experts, like Alumo Energy, report unprecedented demand, with homeowners citing the recent tariff hikes as the final push that convinced them to invest in panels.

Despite the clear benefits and growing urgency, small-scale embedded generation (SSEG) in South Africa faces a patchwork of regulations and bureaucratic hurdles that threaten to slow its momentum. Yet registration requirements for home solar systems remain fragmented, as each municipality has its own application rules, and many are struggling to process the influx of requests.

Simultaneously, few of the country’s municipalities have established formal procedures to register residential solar installations, and the rest either prohibit grid-tied solar connections or have no clear process in place. This leaves would-be solar adopters in administrative limbo.

We can’t pretend this is business as usual anymore. On one hand, Eskom is seemingly getting a handle on load shedding. On the other, people are literally pulling away from the grid because they have no choice financially or because of future reliability concerns. As a country concerned for the welfare of its people, and given South Africa’s ambitious emission targets, it’s time to embrace the shift and make it easier, not more difficult, for everyone to go solar. Eskom’s business model also requires reconsideration so that it can thrive alongside widespread private generation.