Close Menu
TechCentralTechCentral

    Subscribe to the newsletter

    Get the best South African technology news and analysis delivered to your e-mail inbox every morning.

    Facebook X (Twitter) YouTube LinkedIn
    WhatsApp Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn YouTube
    TechCentralTechCentral
    • News

      South Africa begins complex job of overhauling media laws

      13 July 2025

      Nvidia CEO to hold high stakes media briefing in Beijing

      13 July 2025

      Blue Label Telecoms to change its name as restructuring gathers pace

      11 July 2025

      Get your ID delivered like pizza – home affairs’ latest digital shake-up

      11 July 2025

      EFF vows to stop Starlink from launching in South Africa

      11 July 2025
    • World

      Grok 4 arrives with bold claims and fresh controversy

      10 July 2025

      Bitcoin pushes higher into record territory

      10 July 2025

      Cupertino vs Brussels: Apple challenges Big Tech crackdown

      7 July 2025

      Grammarly acquires e-mail start-up Superhuman

      1 July 2025

      Apple considers ditching its own AI in Siri overhaul

      1 July 2025
    • In-depth

      Siemens is battling Big Tech for AI supremacy in factories

      24 June 2025

      The algorithm will sing now: why musicians should be worried about AI

      20 June 2025

      Meta bets $72-billion on AI – and investors love it

      17 June 2025

      MultiChoice may unbundle SuperSport from DStv

      12 June 2025

      Grok promised bias-free chat. Then came the edits

      2 June 2025
    • TCS

      TCS+ | MVNX on the opportunities in South Africa’s booming MVNO market

      11 July 2025

      TCS | Connecting Saffas – Renier Lombard on The Lekker Network

      7 July 2025

      TechCentral Nexus S0E4: Takealot’s big Post Office jobs plan

      4 July 2025

      TCS | Tech, townships and tenacity: Spar’s plan to win with Spar2U

      3 July 2025

      TCS+ | First Distribution on the latest and greatest cloud technologies

      27 June 2025
    • Opinion

      In defence of equity alternatives for BEE

      30 June 2025

      E-commerce in ICT distribution: enabler or disruptor?

      30 June 2025

      South Africa pioneered drone laws a decade ago – now it must catch up

      17 June 2025

      AI and the future of ICT distribution

      16 June 2025

      Singapore soared – why can’t we? Lessons South Africa refuses to learn

      13 June 2025
    • Company Hubs
      • Africa Data Centres
      • AfriGIS
      • Altron Digital Business
      • Altron Document Solutions
      • Altron Group
      • Arctic Wolf
      • AvertITD
      • Braintree
      • CallMiner
      • CambriLearn
      • CYBER1 Solutions
      • Digicloud Africa
      • Digimune
      • Domains.co.za
      • ESET
      • Euphoria Telecom
      • Incredible Business
      • iONLINE
      • Iris Network Systems
      • LSD Open
      • NEC XON
      • Network Platforms
      • Next DLP
      • Ovations
      • Paracon
      • Paratus
      • Q-KON
      • SevenC
      • SkyWire
      • Solid8 Technologies
      • Telit Cinterion
      • Tenable
      • Vertiv
      • Videri Digital
      • Wipro
      • Workday
    • Sections
      • AI and machine learning
      • Banking
      • Broadcasting and Media
      • Cloud services
      • Contact centres and CX
      • Cryptocurrencies
      • Education and skills
      • Electronics and hardware
      • Energy and sustainability
      • Enterprise software
      • Fintech
      • Information security
      • Internet and connectivity
      • Internet of Things
      • Investment
      • IT services
      • Lifestyle
      • Motoring
      • Public sector
      • Retail and e-commerce
      • Science
      • SMEs and start-ups
      • Social media
      • Talent and leadership
      • Telecoms
    • Events
    • Advertise
    TechCentralTechCentral
    Home » Investment » Why a stronger rand may be here to stay

    Why a stronger rand may be here to stay

    By Agency Staff11 May 2021
    Twitter LinkedIn Facebook WhatsApp Email Telegram Copy Link
    News Alerts
    WhatsApp

    The rand’s 30% gain against the dollar since the height of the pandemic has outstripped emerging-market peers — and the rally may not be over yet.

    South Africa’s currency has recovered all its losses since it slumped to a record in April last year, and then some. Strong commodity prices and the global search for yield should support the narrative for further gains in coming months. Domestic fiscal metrics — though still far from healthy — are improving along with terms of trade, while the government’s crackdown on corruption is also fuelling positive sentiment.

    It’s becoming easier to back the rand. Here’s why:

    Bond investors return

    After record outflows from South Africa’s bond market in the first four months of the year, last week’s disappointing US jobs numbers heralded a reprieve. Foreign investors bought a net R5.2-billion of South African government debt on Friday, the biggest in inflow since November, as the move lower in treasury rates gave new impetus to the search for yield. Together with a healthy trade surplus fuelled by rising commodity prices, those inflows could be rand-supportive in coming months.

    Technical cheer

    The dollar last week tested a pivotal area at R14.40-R14.50 after consolidating in the second half of April. Failure to breach resistance meant that rand bulls got the upper hand once again, as shown by the fear-greed indicator, and the pair fell to fresh cycle lows. In the longer term, the rand seems to be in the final stages of the ABC correction of an Elliot Wave Cycle that started in 2011 and was completed in early 2020. The dollar may weaken toward the R11.50 handle, according to the pattern.

    Encouraging options

    Demand for dollar topside exposure took a hit as key resistance around R14.50 held. While greenback calls still trade at a significant premium, bearish sentiment for the South African currency, as measured by one-month risk reversals, has moved to the lowest level in three weeks, with room to extend towards February range extremes.

    Shiny prospects

    The correlation between the Bloomberg Industrial Metals Sub-Index and the rand has strengthened to 0.6, near its strongest level this year. Industrial metals account for about a quarter of South Africa’s export earnings, bolstering the current-account balance, for long the rand’s Achilles heel. The current account may be in surplus this year, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

    Best bet

    The large inflows from loans South Africa procured from the International Monetary Fund and New Development Bank amid the height of the Covid-19 pandemic have created a surplus of dollars in the local banking system. That’s lifted USDZAR basis swaps well above the long-term average, making it expensive to short the South African currency. With more inflows expected this year from a World Bank loan and Eurobond issuance, the cost of betting against the rand will remain elevated for some time.  — Reported by Colleen Goko and Vassilis Karamanis, (c) 2021 Bloomberg LP



    Subscribe to TechCentral Subscribe to TechCentral
    Share. Facebook Twitter LinkedIn WhatsApp Telegram Email Copy Link
    Previous ArticleMichael Dell sees chip shortage lasting a few years
    Next Article Facebook begins testing Live Audio Rooms, its Clubhouse rival

    Related Posts

    South Africa begins complex job of overhauling media laws

    13 July 2025

    Nvidia CEO to hold high stakes media briefing in Beijing

    13 July 2025

    Blue Label Telecoms to change its name as restructuring gathers pace

    11 July 2025
    Company News

    $125-trillion traded: Binance redefines global finance in just eight years

    11 July 2025

    NEC XON welcomes HPE acquisition of Juniper Networks

    11 July 2025

    LTE Cat 1 vs Cat 1 bis – what’s the difference?

    11 July 2025
    Opinion

    In defence of equity alternatives for BEE

    30 June 2025

    E-commerce in ICT distribution: enabler or disruptor?

    30 June 2025

    South Africa pioneered drone laws a decade ago – now it must catch up

    17 June 2025

    Subscribe to Updates

    Get the best South African technology news and analysis delivered to your e-mail inbox every morning.

    © 2009 - 2025 NewsCentral Media

    Type above and press Enter to search. Press Esc to cancel.